Chain-linked across the 2022 Social Security Funds consolidation and the 2024 IPSAS-compliance restatement, both of which would otherwise read as payroll growth. Tracks the 'Committees' subtotal only - core government committee payroll, excluding States Members, trading entities, controlled entities and the funds' own staff. Everything right of 2025 is a projection, not a forecast: the 2025 pay bill compounded at the rate payroll actually grew over the last ten years (5.09%/yr) and last five (7.30%/yr). Nothing is modelled - no pay settlement, demographic change, policy decision or shock.States of Guernsey payroll vs RPI, and where it is heading by Bridgehead Communications · CC BY 4.0