# Guernsey's Pay Bill: Where a Decade of Hiring Leads by 2035

Canonical URL: https://www.bridgeheadcommunications.com/insights/2026/08/31/guernsey-states-payroll-vs-rpi
Published: 2026-08-31
By: William Walter — Managing Director, Bridgehead Communications
Sector: Corporate

> Guernsey's core-government pay bill rose 64.3% in a decade against 42.9% inflation, and pay per head fell in real terms - the entire excess is 822 extra posts. Carried forward at the same rate, it passes the island's whole income tax take inside ten years.

**To roughly the whole of today's income tax take, inside ten years.** The States of Guernsey's core-government pay bill has grown 64.3% since 2015 against RPI of 42.9%. Carry that growth forward at the rate it has actually run and, by 2035, the wage bill for core government committees alone reaches £542.8m on the slower ten-year rate, or £668.3m on the faster five-year one. Every penny of income tax Guernsey collected in 2025, personal and corporate, was £527.6m.

## The numbers

- Core-government committee payroll rose from **£201.0m in 2015 to £330.3m in 2025**, up 64.3% against RPI of 42.9%.

- Pay _per full-time equivalent_ rose **38.5%** — below inflation. The average States post got about 3% cheaper in real terms.

- The entire excess over inflation is volume: **+822 FTE, +18.6%**, from 4,408 to 5,230.

- Had the bill been held to RPI from 2015, 2025's payroll would have been **£287.2m — £43.2m lower**, with **£152.0m** of cumulative cash across the decade.

- Projected to 2035 at the same growth: **£542.8m** (ten-year rate, 5.09%/yr) to **£668.3m** (five-year rate, 7.30%/yr).

- That increase of **£212.5m–£338.0m a year** is **4.2× to 6.8×** the ~£50m net that the whole GST-plus package is designed to raise.

## Explore the data

[Interactive tool](https://www.bridgeheadcommunications.com/guernsey/embed/guernsey-payroll-vs-rpi)
States of Guernsey core-government payroll against three RPI-only counterfactuals, projected to 2035. Everything right of 2025 is a projection, not a forecast.

## Why the published figures cannot be compared directly

Reading “total pay costs” straight off consecutive sets of accounts gives £287.7m in 2022 and £396.0m in 2024, which looks like 38% growth in two years. Most of that is scope, not spending. Two changes broke the run of numbers, in opposite directions.

**2022:** the Guernsey Insurance Fund and Long Term Care Insurance Fund were consolidated into “Core Government”. That added around £209m of contribution income but only £1.8m of payroll, because the funds employ almost nobody — so pay as a share of revenue fell for reasons that have nothing to do with pay.

**2023 and 2024:** the first fully IPSAS-compliant accounts consolidated Guernsey Electricity, Aurigny, Guernsey Post, the Housing Association and the trading entities, adding roughly £80m of payroll that was never in the earlier figures. Separately the pension charge moved from contributions paid to IPSAS 39 service cost, restating 2023 committee pay _down_ £18.0m with identical headcount.

The fix is to measure one consistent thing — the “Committees” subtotal carried in every year's Pay Costs & FTE appendix — and chain-link across the breaks, taking each year-on-year growth rate from a single document reporting both years on its own basis. No restatement then appears as growth. And the answer is expressed in pounds, never as a ratio to revenue, because the saving is a function of the payroll series and RPI only.

## What this means

An “RPI cap” framed as _pay restraint_ would have delivered close to nothing, because pay per head has already tracked below inflation. A cap on the total bill is a cap on headcount by another name. Over ten years it implies holding core government to roughly its 2015 establishment, or funding growth in one service by shrinking another.

The projection is a trajectory, not a prediction. Nothing is modelled: no pay settlement, no demographic shift, no policy decision, no economic shock, and the further out you read the less it is worth. Its claim is about the present — that the current path, simply continued, arrives somewhere the island would not choose. Every year the outturn lands below those lines is a year a decision was taken.

It also excludes the trading and controlled entities throughout, and makes no adjustment for population, service demand, the island's ageing profile or statutory duties added over the decade. It is a counterfactual on the arithmetic of the pay bill, not a judgement on whether the extra 822 posts were needed.

## FAQ

**How much has the States of Guernsey's pay bill grown since 2015?**

Core-government committee payroll rose from £201.0m in 2015 to £330.3m in 2025, an increase of 64.3%. RPI over the same period rose 42.9%. The figures are chain-linked across the 2022 Social Security Funds consolidation and the 2024 IPSAS restatement so that changes in accounting scope do not read as growth.

**Is the increase driven by pay rises or by hiring?**

Almost entirely by hiring. Pay per full-time equivalent rose 38.5% over the decade, which is below RPI of 42.9% — the average States post became about 3% cheaper in real terms. Headcount rose from 4,408 to 5,230 FTE, an increase of 822 posts or 18.6%. That volume growth is the whole of the excess over inflation.

**What would capping the pay bill at inflation have saved?**

Had the bill been held to RPI from 2015, payroll in 2025 would have been £287.2m rather than £330.3m — £43.2m lower in that year alone, and £152.0m of cumulative cash across the decade. Capping from 2020 saves £27.8m in 2025 and £65.8m cumulatively; from 2022, £23.6m and £44.3m.

**What will the pay bill be in 2035?**

On the growth rate of the last ten years (5.09% a year) it reaches £542.8m by 2035; on the faster rate of the last five years (7.30% a year), £668.3m. Both are projections rather than forecasts — straight extrapolations of past growth with no pay settlement, demographic change, policy decision or economic shock modelled.

**How does that compare to what Guernsey raises in tax?**

In 2025 all income tax collected in Guernsey, personal and corporate, came to £527.6m. On the slower of the two trends, core government's committee pay bill alone passes that figure in 2034; on the faster one, in 2031. Separately, the projected increase in the pay bill of £212.5m to £338.0m a year is 4.2 to 6.8 times the roughly £50m net that the GST-plus package is designed to raise.