Selection analysis

How CQC chooses what to inspect next

What actually drives re-inspection — provider type, cadence and geography — from the full inspection history.

No geographic ‘next-door’ pattern

Consecutive inspections
9 km apart
Random pairs
9.32 km apart

Inspections that happen one-after-another in a local authority are essentially as far apart as random pairs (9 km vs 9.32 km median, 77,708 pairs sampled) — CQC does not sweep areas or inspect neighbour-then-neighbour.

Re-inspection cadence
Median re-inspection interval
12.7 months
Mean interval
15.8 months

Across 129,477 intervals for all services. Published re-inspections have largely stalled since 2023.

Your base probability
0.03%

chance a given all home is the next one inspected in Kent (3183 of that type).

A nearby home being inspected does not change this — there's no geographic ‘next-door’ pattern.

Local care-workforce vacancy rate: 6.5% (Skills for Care 2024/25).

Inspected on average 2.01× over their lifetime.

Local workforce strain vs quality

Does area staffing shortage predict worse ratings?

No. Across 131 local authorities, an area's care-workforce vacancy rate shows essentially no correlation with its share of poorly-rated homes (r = -0.015).

Vacancy quartileAvg vacancyAvg poorly-ratedLAs
Lowest4.4%18.3%33
2nd6.1%18.2%33
3rd7.4%17.3%33
Highest10%17.7%32

Counter to the common assumption that understaffed areas have worse care — at local-authority aggregate level the two are unrelated. Workforce data: Skills for Care Adult Social Care Workforce Estimates 2024/25.

Based on full inspection histories reconstructed from CQC report records; distances are great-circle between locations' coordinates within the same local authority.