Modelled Guernsey Insurance Fund operating deficit, 2027 to 2045 (£m)
A Bridgehead model of the Guernsey Insurance Fund's operating deficit before investment returns, 2027 to 2045, under three contribution decisions. With rates held it reaches £70.5m in 2040; if the ten-year plan completes it reaches £37.8m.
Read this with the chart: Bridgehead projection, not a States of Guernsey forecast. The States have not published a revised actuarial projection, and when they do it replaces this one. Central case: spending grows 3.8% a year and income 3%, starting from the £22.9m deficit in the 2027 Budget. A transparent model of three decisions on contribution rates, not a prediction of which the States will take.
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Sources
- States of Guernsey Budget 2027 (full report), Committee for Employment & Social Security pages 116 and 117 and Contributory Funds page 143, paragraphs 4.28 and 4.39 to 4.41
- Committee for Employment & Social Security, "Contributory Benefit and Contribution Rates for 2026", P.2025/113 (policy letter dated 8 September 2025)
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