States of Guernsey payroll vs RPI, and where it is heading

Name: States of Guernsey payroll vs RPI, and where it is heading
Creator: Bridgehead Communications
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

States of Guernsey payroll, 2015 to 2025, against three RPI-only counterfactuals, projected to 2035 at recent growth rates.

Axis starts at £100m, not zero

Read this with the chart: Chain-linked across the 2022 Social Security Funds consolidation and the 2024 IPSAS-compliance restatement, both of which would otherwise read as payroll growth. Tracks the 'Committees' subtotal only - core government committee payroll, excluding States Members, trading entities, controlled entities and the funds' own staff. Everything right of 2025 is a projection, not a forecast: the 2025 pay bill compounded at the rate payroll actually grew over the last ten years (5.09%/yr) and last five (7.30%/yr). Nothing is modelled - no pay settlement, demographic change, policy decision or shock.

See the full analysis

Embed this chart

Free to use on any site. The caption keeps the credit intact, which is all we ask.

<iframe src="https://www.bridgeheadcommunications.com/guernsey/embed/guernsey-payroll-vs-rpi" width="100%" height="420" style="border:0" loading="lazy" title="States of Guernsey payroll vs RPI, and where it is heading"></iframe>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif">
  <a href="https://www.bridgeheadcommunications.com/guernsey/chart/guernsey-payroll-vs-rpi">States of Guernsey payroll vs RPI, and where it is heading</a> by
  <a href="https://www.bridgeheadcommunications.com">Bridgehead Communications</a>,
  licensed <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY 4.0</a>.
</p>

Sources

Licence

This chart is published under CC BY 4.0. Use it anywhere, including commercially, as long as you credit Bridgehead Communications with a link. The embed code above already includes a correct credit.