Guernsey
Stats
−1.7pts/yrReal growth per year, 2013–2023, vs. Jersey0.8%Unemployment18.9%Relative poverty, 202216.9%Lonely often or all the time, 20230Net new affordable homes, 20253.4 yearsInsurance Fund reserve, years of spending, 2026 budget6.4 yearsCare Fund reserve, years of spending, 2026 budget+64.3%Core-government pay bill, 2015 to 2025+34.2%Pay per public-sector post, 2015 to 20242,215Recorded offences, 202586%Chief Officer working days in the Bailiwick, 202557%Elective surgery on-target158Avoidable deaths per 100,000, 2022–2437.4Attainment 8, States-maintained schools, 202617 of 20Schools rated good or better for quality of education1,255Road closures, 2025140,860Bus journeys, March 2025+198%Electricity standing charge since July 202326.01p/kWhDomestic electricity unit rate, July 202639.5%FOI requests answered within 20 working days, 202563.6%FOI requests answered within 20 working days, 2026 so far

State of the NationGuernsey · Public comment · Jan 2022 to Oct 2026

What Guernsey said

Eleven political events, and what the positive and negative comments said about each.

Comments classified

12,018

public Facebook, 2022 to October 2026

About politics

73.5%

negative

Everything else

33%

negative, on the same pages

Events read

11

each with its own frame below

Overall analysis

Politics is where the anger is, and failure to deliver draws the sharpest comments

12,018

public comments classified, 2022 to October 2026, across seven Facebook pages and groups

73.5%

of the 5,430 comments about politics were negative; 8.7% were positive

33%

negative on everything else the same pages attract, so politics is about 2.2 times as negative

3 v 1

median likes on a negative comment against a positive one; 42% of negative comments earned five or more likes, against 27% of positive

Tone by subject

Same pages, very different tone

All comments (12,018)

51% negative · 28% neutral · 21% positive

About politics (5,430)

74% negative · 18% neutral · 9% positive

Everything else (6,588)

33% negative · 36% neutral · 31% positive

By source, the share of political comments that were negative ran from 68% on BBC Guernsey to 81% on Island FM. That 13-point spread is small beside the 40-point gap between politics and everything else.

Topics inside politics

Share of comments that were negative, by topic

Order by
  • Delivery failures (IT, tax returns, “shambles”) · 3% of political

    92%
  • Spending and waste · 8% of political

    89%
  • Trust and mandate · 7% of political

    80%
  • Housing and cost of living · 8% of political

    79%
  • Pay and pensions · 5% of political

    77%
  • GST and tax · 25% of political, the biggest topic

    76%
  • Transport and ferries · 8% of political

    74%
  • Environment and planning · 2% of political

    71%

Topics are keyword groups and overlap, so a comment can count under more than one. The figures show direction, not precise shares.

1 · Subject drives tone

The pages are the same, yet politics runs 74% negative and everything else 33%. The anger follows the subject, and the spread between outlets is small by comparison.

2 · Competence stings more than tax

GST and tax is the biggest topic, and at 76% negative it sits near the political average. The sharper comments are about delivery (92%), spending (89%) and trust (80%). Reading across, the complaint is as much about whether the States spends well and keeps its word as about the rate.

3 · Anger travels further

Negative comments collect more endorsement than positive ones, so a thread can read angrier than the count alone suggests. This covers the comments collected, which are the first in each thread.

4 · Little change over four years

Among the three pages with full coverage, negative political comments ran 77%, 81%, 72%, 67% and 70% from 2022 to 2026. The mood eased a little in 2025 and came back. Tax decisions in 2024 and 2026 were each followed by a rise of 11 to 14 points.

5 · Goodwill is short-lived

The June 2025 election is the only clear break: negative comments fell to about 45% and positive rose to about 33%. By September the 3-month average was back at 68% and by October at 60%. Most of the warmth was congratulation, not a lasting change of view.

6 · What lifts the mood

Positive comments cluster around decisions that bring certainty (the ferry schedule, leaving a green-field site alone), fresh starts such as an election, and constructive alternatives like paid parking or a different income tax. Only 9% of political comments were positive, so these are small pockets.

Tone over time

Comments about deputies, the States and politics

Share of political comments, 3-month average, January 2022 to October 2026.

Hover or tap the line for a month’s figures, use the arrow keys to step along it, zoom to a year, or click a numbered marker to jump to that event.

Scroll the chart sideways to read it in full.

The pattern

77%

2022

81%

2023

72%

2024

67%

2025

70%

2026

Share of comments about politics that were negative

The one clear break is the June 2025 election. Negative comments fell to about 45% and positive comments rose to about 33% for a few weeks, mostly congratulations to the new deputies. Tax, and GST above all, was the most persistent source of negative comment in every year.

  1. 7May 2025: Agilisys IT contract ended
  2. 8Jun to Jul 2025: Election; new P&R president
  3. 9Oct 2025: Budget 2026
  4. 10Jan 2026: Tax reform letter published
  5. 11Sep to Oct 2026: Tax reform vote, 22 to 17

Public Facebook comments on States of Guernsey, Guernsey Press and Island FM posts (trend line); frames also draw on BBC Guernsey, Bailiwick Express, ITV Channel and a public group. Tone is labelled by AI and spot-checked, not audited. A sample of the most-commented political posts each month.

Eleven events

What the comments said around each

Each frame covers the comments under posts about that event. The bar splits them by tone; the lists give the main points on each side, and one short unnamed quote shows the register.

1Nov 2022

States publish a plan to close the deficit, including 5% GST

The plan paired GST with higher social security contributions.

35 comments · 71% negative · 23% neutral · 6% positive

What the negative comments said

  • GST called an easy option that will keep rising and hurt retail and pensioners
  • Middle earners say they are already stretched
  • Distrust of deputies who campaigned against tax rises
  • Demand to cut consultants and vanity projects first

What the positive comments said

  • Almost none. Neither positive comment welcomed GST; both suggested raising money from legalised cannabis

Negative“GST will make us poorer.”

2Feb 2023

States reject P&R’s tax plan with GST, 25 votes to 15

Deputies then failed to agree an alternative.

61 comments · 74% negative · 13% neutral · 13% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Anger at the “GST or benefit cuts” message, called scaremongering
  • Calls for P&R to go
  • “Tax the rich and the banks” and audit spending first
  • Frustration that the vote left no alternative

What the positive comments said

  • Relief at the result (“Great news”)
  • Support for paid parking and a tax on electric cars

Negative“Stop wasting money on vanity projects and look at internal revenue leaks!”

Positive“Paid parking should have been introduced 30 years ago.”

3Jun 2023

States reveal a £135m deficit for 2022 and ask the public where to cut

The States also asked the public where to make cuts.

31 comments · 71% negative · 23% neutral · 6% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Deputies’ 5.7% pay rise cited again and again as the first saving
  • Fewer deputies suggested
  • Residents pay while businesses get tax breaks
  • No to GST, yes to belt tightening; cuts to sport unpopular

What the positive comments said

  • Very few. Mostly defence of sport funding

Negative“You can’t fix the island’s financial woes by making poor people poorer.”

4Dec 2023

P&R ousted in a no-confidence vote, 23 to 16; Lyndon Trott elected president

A new Policy & Resources Committee was elected shortly afterwards.

93 comments · 45% negative · 19% neutral · 35% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Despair at the new line-up (“worse than before”)
  • Call for binding manifestos so the “farce” is not repeated
  • Anger at the time spent on the vote
  • Distrust of individual members

What the positive comments said

  • Relief at early decisions, notably leaving a green-field site undeveloped (“common sense prevails”)
  • Calls to give the new team a chance

Negative“The incompetence continues in Guernsey.”

Positive“Give ’em a chance.”

5Oct 2024

Brittany Ferries chosen to run Guernsey’s sea links

Commenters said the tender had taken about ten months; many came from the Jersey ferry debate.

139 comments · 63% negative · 26% neutral · 12% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Timetables judged poor: late arrivals in St Malo, few day trips from Guernsey
  • Distrust after the long tender, with much of the anger aimed at Jersey’s ministers
  • Some blame both island governments for a mess
  • Satisfaction at Condor’s difficulties

What the positive comments said

  • Relief at certainty and a fixed daily schedule
  • Credit to Guernsey for deciding while Jersey delayed

Negative“Nice to see they have catered for day trips from France to Guernsey but not from Guernsey to France.”

Positive“Credit to Guernsey’s government for taking the lead on decision making.”

6Nov 2024

States vote for GST-plus: 5% GST from 2027 with a new income tax band

The vote reversed the rejection of 2023.

98 comments · 74% negative · 18% neutral · 7% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Called a betrayal of the public’s no-GST message
  • Threats to vote deputies out; calls for an early election
  • Burden on pensioners and middle and low earners, set by high earners
  • Fear of GST stacking on parking, road tax and travel costs

What the positive comments said

  • GST the fairest way because everyone pays, visitors included
  • Praise for deputies who voted yes despite the unpopularity
  • Regret at the years spent debating it

Negative“They have betrayed the Guernsey people simple as that.”

Positive“Money needed to be raised and GST is the fairest way as everyone in society pays.”

7May 2025

States end the £200m Agilisys IT contract

The contract was due to run ten years and ends on 31 July 2025.

15 comments · 60% negative · 27% neutral · 13% positiveSmall sample

What the negative comments said

  • Long overdue and years late
  • Questions about the cost of leaving and who approved the deal
  • Worry about the replacement model and local Agilisys staff
  • Tax assessment delays blamed on IT

What the positive comments said

  • Calls to “go local” when replacing it

Negative“Good news, albeit years late.”

8Jun to Jul 2025

General election; Lindsay de Sausmarez elected P&R president

Committee presidents were chosen over the following weeks.

323 comments · 19% negative · 18% neutral · 64% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Sniping at individual appointments
  • Complaint that the accounts were published after the election
  • Worry about voting without ID
  • “Out with the GST lovers”

What the positive comments said

  • Congratulations and hope for change after 17 new candidates
  • A P&R president with a public mandate
  • Praise for the Press election podcast series

Negative“Publishing the accounts after the election is politically convenient.”

Positive“Great that Guernsey finally has a P&R president with mandate and support from the public.”

9Oct 2025

Budget 2026: changes to fuel duty, alcohol and property tax

Deputies voted 30 to 6 against raising fuel duty by 2.3%.

59 comments · 76% negative · 20% neutral · 3% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Fuel duty already “criminal”; calls to tax electric vehicles instead
  • Fresh States, same old ideas
  • Property tax rise a shock
  • The £115m gap and a 45% rise in electricity bills left untouched

What the positive comments said

  • Support for a higher income tax on earners over £80k

Negative“Fresh new states full of fresh new ideas? Nope just more of the same.”

10Jan 2026

Tax reform policy letter published, with a “better off” case study

Deputies St Pier and de Sausmarez were to host a livestreamed Q&A.

46 comments · 52% negative · 46% neutral · 2% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Case study seen as unrealistic: assumes a steady £50k salary
  • “£11.84 a week better off” mocked
  • No GST on food, and doubt that benefits would improve
  • Doubt that the States can run a new tax after its tax return problems

What the positive comments said

  • One positive comment in 46; most of the rest were questions

Negative“What mandate do you believe you have from the electorate to introduce a GST?”

11Sep to Oct 2026

Tax reform vote: income-tax alternative debated; package passes 22 to 17 with 3% GST

Some businesses then banned the deputies who backed the package.

202 comments · 59% negative · 27% neutral · 14% positive

What the negative comments said

  • Deputies accused of ignoring public protest and the public’s voice
  • “Waiting for the next election”
  • Cut States spending before taking more from people
  • Anger at deputies’ response to protesters

What the positive comments said

  • Praise for the 22p income tax alternative as fairer and cheaper to collect
  • Backing for deputies who voted no
  • Amusement at the business ban

Negative“Pushing through this package” i.e. ignoring the voices of those you are serving.

Positive“Right decision made.”

What keeps recurring

Four complaints, and what the supportive comments had in common

Negative themes

The squeeze on ordinary households

Pensioners and middle earners say every new tax lands on them while high earners and finance firms do not pay their share.

Cut the States first

Deputies’ pay rises, consultants, civil service management and big projects come up in nearly every thread as the savings to make before taxing anyone.

Trust and mandate

Many comments say deputies who campaigned against GST broke their word. The same thread runs through calls for binding manifestos, no-confidence votes and early elections.

Delivery failures

The Agilisys IT contract, tax assessment delays and the ferry tender are cited as evidence the States cannot run a new tax system.

Positive themes

Fairness: everyone pays

The supporters of GST argue it is the one tax that reaches everyone, visitors included.

Decisive, practical decisions

Praise follows decisions seen as common sense, such as ferry certainty or leaving a green-field site alone.

Goodwill at a fresh start

The 2025 election brought congratulations and a hope that new deputies would listen.

Alternatives offered

Paid parking, a tax on electric cars, a higher income tax on top earners and legalised cannabis appear as positive suggestions in several threads.

One caution on “positive”

Positive means a positive tone, not agreement with the States. In the October 2026 frame most positive comments praised the income tax alternative and the deputies who voted against the GST package. In 2024 the positive comments backed GST. Read each frame for which side the warmth was directed at.

Method

Sources and method

Bridgehead collected public Facebook comments on 17 October 2026 and classified 12,018 of them, from January 2022 to October 2026. They sit under posts by BBC Guernsey, Bailiwick Express, Guernsey Press, ITV Channel, Island FM and States of Guernsey, and in the public group Have Your Say (Original).

Each frame uses comments under the posts about that event, from the most-commented political posts each month (the first 15 comments, no replies), so heated threads are over-represented. A comment counts as political when its post is about deputies, the States, tax, the budget, committees or an election.

The collection tool stops at 1,000 posts for a page in a year. That cut BBC Guernsey, Bailiwick Express and ITV Channel to roughly the second half of each year, so pooling every page would mix months covered by different pages. The trend line therefore uses the three pages with full coverage: States of Guernsey, Guernsey Press and Island FM (8,029 comments). The frames also draw on the other pages and the group. The group has almost nothing for 2025, a gap in the collection, so it adds little to the 2025 frames.

Tone was labelled by an AI model as positive, neutral or negative. It was spot-checked on 24 comments (22 right); the full set was not audited. Positive means a positive tone, not agreement with the States.

The May 2025 frame rests on 15 comments, and the April 2024 Revenue Service disarray on 10, too few to summarise. Events involving criminal charges or arrests of named deputies are left out.

These are public Facebook comments; the private groups are not included, so the page says nothing about what is said in them. Quotes are shortened and shown without names. Timing between an event and a change in tone does not show that one caused the other.

Pages and group read

To report an error, see the corrections page.

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