Guernsey
State of the NationGuernsey Deputy Scorecard
Stats
−1.7pts/yrReal growth per year, 2013–2023, vs. Jersey0.8%Unemployment18.9%Relative poverty, 202216.9%Lonely often or all the time, 20230Net new affordable homes, 20253.4 yearsInsurance Fund reserve, years of spending, 2026 budget6.4 yearsCare Fund reserve, years of spending, 2026 budget+64.3%Core-government pay bill, 2015 to 2025+34.2%Pay per public-sector post, 2015 to 20242,215Recorded offences, 202586%Chief Officer working days in the Bailiwick, 202557%Elective surgery on-target158Avoidable deaths per 100,000, 2022–2437.4Attainment 8, States-maintained schools, 202617 of 20Schools rated good or better for quality of education1,255Road closures, 2025140,860Bus journeys, March 2025+198%Electricity standing charge since July 202326.01p/kWhDomestic electricity unit rate, July 202639.5%FOI requests answered within 20 working days, 202563.6%FOI requests answered within 20 working days, 2026 so far

State of the NationGuernsey · Ideas for Growth · the competing plans

Six plans to bring growth back, and where they collide.

Guernsey grew 0.6% a year in real terms from 2013 to 2023, against 2.3% in Jersey. Six plans claim to fix that. They differ on who pays, who works and what the States should stop doing.

Guernsey real GDP growth a year, 2013 to 2023, against 2.3% in Jersey
0.6%Guernsey real GDP growth a year, 2013 to 2023, against 2.3% in Jersey
A year: real GVA growth of finance and related services, 2017 to 2025 (Finance Sector Strategy)
0.1%A year: real GVA growth of finance and related services, 2017 to 2025 (Finance Sector Strategy)
GDP growth a year assumed in the Tax Reform funding model, or 0.75% in the favourable case
0.5%GDP growth a year assumed in the Tax Reform funding model, or 0.75% in the favourable case
Whole-economy growth targets in the Government Work Plan, the Economic Development work plan or the Tax Reform letter
NoneWhole-economy growth targets in the Government Work Plan, the Economic Development work plan or the Tax Reform letter

This page sets out each plan as its backers state it. It does not rank the plans or forecast what any of them would do. Every figure is attributed to the body that produced it. Where the arithmetic is ours, the text says so. Compiled on 30 October 2026, before the 2027 Budget debate on 3 November and the IoD growth conference on 18 November.

The plans

Six answers to the same problem

The first three disagree about what the States should do with its own budget. The last three disagree about what the economy lacks: sectors, people or infrastructure.

Plan 1 of 6

Fix the public finances first, then grow

Held by Policy & Resources Committee, with Deputy Andrew Niles its public voice on the case; backed on tax by the IoD, GIBA and the Chamber of Commerce

Stabilise the States’ finances with a mix of tax and savings, then pursue growth from a sound base. The policy letter calls growth “key to Guernsey’s long-term success” and says relying on it to close the gap is “high risk”.

What it would do

  • GST from 2028, phased in at 3%, 4% and then 5% under Amendment 55 (carried 21 votes to 16 on 1 October 2026; the phasing proposition passed 20 to 19 on 2 October)
  • Zero-10 kept; the 10% rate extended to the full profits of regulated businesses from 2027
  • Public sector savings, and an assurance review in 2030 that tests economic growth, housing supply and population projections

Its own numbers

2% of GDP
The revenue the package must raise, about £70m a year (P&R policy letter)
0.5% a year
GDP growth assumed in the funding model, or 0.75% in the favourable case (P&R policy letter, Appendix 10)

In more detail

What the package contains

  • The policy letter prices the 3% GST package at a net £39m a year: £8m from households, £5m from visitors and £28m from business, less £2.5m of administration (Appendix 7). A minimum of £20m of savings by 2029 sits in the baseline on top of that. The two together come to about £59m (Bridgehead arithmetic).
  • Income tax: the basic rate falls from 20% to 15% on income up to £28,000, with 20% above that, and the personal allowance rises by £600 to £15,800. The letter costs the income tax changes at £28m a year.
  • Social security: a new contributions allowance of £11,122 for employed and self-employed people, withdrawn at £1 in every £5 above £85,000. The employer rate rises from 7.1% to 7.6% by 2029, employees move to 8.5% from 2028, and a 2.5% rate applies to employers and the self-employed between the £196,560 upper earnings limit and £300,000. The net effect is +£2m.
  • GST at 3% is expected to raise £41m from local households and £5m from visitors. Pensions, income support and other benefits rise before it starts, and an Essential Costs Relief Payment goes to lower-income households that are not on income support.
  • An International Services Entities scheme, mirroring Jersey, lets finance businesses with international clients pay a fee for an End User Relief Certificate from GST. The letter expects £10m to £12m a year from it.
  • Transport taxes net +£7m. Fuel duty falls by 25%, a new annual vehicle tax of £25 to £280 (median £132) covers private vehicles including electric ones, and a surcharge starting at £2,500 applies to vehicles worth more than £50,000.
  • A 10% rate for retail and construction is deferred until at least 2031, “to allow time for the GST to become established”.

What the States changed on 1 and 2 October

  • Amendment 55 carried 21 votes to 16 on 1 October, with 3 abstentions. Its phasing proposition (1A) carried 20 to 19 on 2 October. GST starts at 3%, rises to 4% 24 months after the income tax, social security and GST changes begin, and to 5% after 48 months. At each step the social security allowance and the higher-rate income tax threshold move up (£12,600 and £30,500 at the first, £13,000 and £33,000 at the second) and benefits rise by 0.6%. A fiscal rule caps GST at 5%.
  • Each rise needs a published assurance review from the Fiscal Policy Panel, which must say the increase is consistent with the Fiscal Policy Framework and necessary and appropriate. If the Panel does not affirm it, the rise is deferred for at least 12 months (Proposition 5, passed 33 votes to 6).
  • Proposition 6 (27 votes to 10) says GST should not rise above its opening rate before the 2030 assurance review has been presented. After that it can rise only if evidence shows a funding gap and the 1% real-terms savings have been delivered. If GST starts in early 2028, the first step in Proposition 1A falls in early 2030, and the review is dated only “2030”. The resolutions do not say which comes first (Bridgehead’s reading).
  • Food produced or grown by small independent suppliers is zero-rated. GST cannot start until the income tax and social security mitigations are in place.

The gap it is meant to close

  • The 2026 Budget put the structural gap at £77m, on the assumption that infrastructure spending is 2% of GDP and paid for entirely from General Revenue (letter, paragraph 3.4). The letter’s summary says the States need to bridge at least £80m a year, or £90m if reserves are to be held in line with GDP.
  • Separately it says the States need additional resources “equivalent to around 2% of GDP (£70m in current terms)” to stop net debt worsening while keeping to the infrastructure target. Without reform, the General Revenue Reserve “could be exhausted by 2031”.
  • The model assumes real GDP growth of 0.5% a year, “based on actual medium- to long-term average growth”.
  • More than half of corporate tax comes from ten businesses, a little under £50m in 2023, most of them in scope of Pillar 2. The letter says Pillar 2 receipts will not be confirmed until late 2027 or early 2028, and that whatever 2025 brings “is likely to represent the high-water mark of income from this source”.
  • The Budget 2027 report of 6 October puts Pillar 2 receipts at £75m for 2025, £77m for 2026 and £79m for 2027 after allowing for uncertainty. It puts the funding gap at £47m under its Option A and £63m under Option B.

Who pays and who gains

  • The letter says GST in isolation “would be regressive”, but that combined with the lower tax rate, the social security allowance, the pre-emptive benefit rise and the Essential Costs Relief Payment, “many lower income households will be better off”.
  • At 3%, households in the bottom third are still better off on average, but by a little less than under the November 2024 proposals. The middle third are better off by about the same amount.
  • The weight has moved to business. The November 2024 package would have raised £33m from households and £21m from business. The 2026 package raises £8m and £28m.

What the letter says about delivery

  • Implementing tax reform has so far cost £1.6m. The letter puts total implementation cost at £8.65m to £12.2m, and the letter’s Proposition 2 would let Policy & Resources draw up to £10.6m from the General Revenue Reserve once business cases are considered.
  • On the Revenue Service, the letter reports that standalone IT options cost more than twice as much as expanding the existing systems, and that using Jersey’s system would need very tight alignment on policy and the sharing of commercially sensitive data.
  • The 1% a year is for efficiencies, “not service cuts or increased charges”. Amendment 13 (Deputy Camp, seconded by Deputy Collins) adds a published Savings and Service Optimisation Programme listing each initiative, the committee responsible, the expected annual benefit, the timetable and the principal risks, with half-yearly reports to the States. Its note says the £20m was “presented as a baseline assumption” without a delivery programme behind it. It carried 33 votes to 1, and the resulting proposition passed 36 to 4.
  • The 2030 assurance review will look at the effect on inflation and employment, public sector savings, Pillar 2 receipts, growth, offshore wind income, the effect of AI on participation, housing supply and population projections. It will also re-examine any social security restructuring that was not agreed.

What happens next

3 November 2026
2027 Budget debate (Option A or Option B, 30 amendments lodged).
2027
The 10% rate extends to the full profits of regulated entities and to prescribed businesses.
Early 2028
Earliest start for GST at 3%, after benefit increases and the other mitigations are in place. Employee social security rates change from 2028.
2028 Budget
Options for an Additional Earnings Allowance for younger earners (Proposition 8, 34 votes to 4) and a tax-free Guernsey Property Savings Account (Proposition 9, 36 to 3).
24 and 48 months after the changes begin
GST rises to 4% and then 5%, each step subject to a Fiscal Policy Panel assurance review.
2029
Employer social security reaches 7.6% and the £20m of savings is due. The letter’s commitment not to raise the Tax on Real Property rate for retail and hospitality lasts until 2029 at the earliest.
2030
Assurance review reports to the States.
2031
Earliest date for a 10% rate on retail and construction.

What it has to answer

The joint business statement backs the package as stabilisation only: “Taxation can stabilise the public finances; only growth can ultimately sustain them.” The States agreed the tax half on 2 October. The growth half is a pro-growth agenda on connectivity, housing and competitiveness, with no target and no cost attached.

Where it stands. Tax Reform approved 2 October 2026 (Proposition 1, 22 votes to 17). GST not before 2028. The Government Work Plan’s first progress report is due in mid-2027.

Sources: Tax Reform 2026 policy letter (P.2026/49); Government Work Plan 2026 to 2029 (P.2025/143); Amendment 55 to P.2026/49 (GST phasing); States voting record, Proposition 1A, 2 October 2026; Budget 2027 report (Policy & Resources Committee, 6 October 2026); IoD, GIBA and Chamber joint statement, Guernsey Press, 3 July 2026; Deputy Andrew Niles, Guernsey Press, 17 June 2026

Plan 2 of 6

Grow first, spend less, tax later

Held by Deputy Garry Collins and other deputies who opposed the tax package

“The answer has always been growing the economy”, in Deputy Collins’s words, with taxes following. He argues the island has a housing crisis, not a financial one, and that more people, particularly young islanders housed locally, is the route to supporting pensioners.

What it would do

  • Scrap the Tax Reform package and set up an Appropriations Committee to review which services the States should deliver, which users should pay for and which should cease (Collins and Camp, Amendment 1, lost 11 votes to 29 on 16 July 2026)
  • Zero-based budgeting (Deputy Camp’s Government Work Plan amendment) and a published savings programme to 2029 (Amendment 13, now agreed)
  • More housing for young islanders and a larger working population

Its own numbers

£4bn
Reserves, up £154m last year, on Deputy Collins’s account (Guernsey Press, 20 July 2026)
11 to 29
The vote on Amendment 1, the Appropriations Committee, on 16 July 2026
£100,000
What the Appropriations Committee could have drawn from the budget reserve, reporting by December 2028 (Amendment 1)

In more detail

What the Appropriations Committee would have done

  • Amendment 1 to the tax proposition would have deleted every Tax Reform proposition and set up a States’ Investigation & Advisory Committee, called the Appropriations Committee, by September 2026.
  • Its mandate had three parts: to identify which services the States must deliver, which would be better commissioned by others, which should be paid for by users and which should cease; to consider new methods of taxation and contribution systems; and to look for savings and efficiencies in all other public sector spending.
  • It could have drawn up to £100,000 from the budget reserve and had to report by December 2028. The chair, elected by the States, would have needed a full political term behind them and could not sit on Policy & Resources or Employment & Social Security. Four more members would be elected by the States, with one member each from those two committees.
  • The States rejected it by 29 votes to 11 on 16 July 2026.

Where the spending ideas went

  • Deputy Camp’s amendment to the Government Work Plan, seconded by Deputy Curgenven and lodged on 28 January 2026, would direct Policy & Resources to set up a zero-based budgeting programme that reviews material areas of spending “from first principles rather than by reference to historical baselines”. Scope, method and initial findings would be due in the mid-term Government Work Plan report.
  • Policy & Resources’ own route is priority-based budgeting, which the tax letter says will keep rolling out to find efficiencies year on year. The Quarry’s report on the 2027 Budget describes a pilot across three States areas that identified 154 services and potential savings equal to 8.5% of the pilot budgets.
  • Amendment 13, proposed by Deputy Camp and seconded by Deputy Collins, did pass. It requires a published savings programme to 2029, half-yearly reports to the States and an independent check of the savings in the 2030 assurance review.

The case in its proponents’ words

  • Deputy Collins, Guernsey Press, 20 July 2026: “We are in a housing crisis, not a financial crisis.” He wants flats, bedsits and homes for young islanders “who will stay on the island and pay taxes”.
  • He lists his evidence for waiting: reserves up £154m last year to over £4bn, over £1bn in pension and long-term care funds, a staff pension fund “nearly 100% covered” in the latest actuarial valuation, high employment and “hundreds to thousands of job vacancies”.
  • He accepts what the route would involve: “It might mean higher population while we deal with the increase in pensioners, but the alternative is really unthinkable.”
  • The tax letter reports £407m of States reserves at the end of 2025 on an accounting basis (assets less liabilities). That figure includes £39m of Pillar 2 revenue not yet received. The letter does not use the £4bn figure, and neither source says which funds the other leaves out.

What happens next

3 November 2026
2027 Budget debate, where the Amendment 13 savings programme is first tested against committee requests.
Half-yearly from 2027
Policy & Resources reports to the States on the published savings programme.
2030
The assurance review includes an independent assessment of whether the assumed savings were delivered and proved sustainable.

What it has to answer

Deputy Niles’s reply is that growth alone cannot close the gap. Bailiwick Express read the 22 amendments to the tax debate and found none that framed its case around economic growth. The States’ own funding model assumes 0.5% a year, close to the 0.6% Guernsey managed from 2013 to 2023.

Where it stands. The States approved the tax package on 2 October (22 votes to 17). The 2027 Budget debate, with 30 amendments lodged, is on 3 November.

Sources: Guernsey Press, 20 July 2026; Bailiwick Express, the tax amendments explained; Deputy Andrew Niles, Guernsey Press, 17 June 2026; Amendment 1 to P.2026/49 (Appropriations Committee); Amendment 13 to P.2026/49 (savings programme); Amendment 6 to P.2025/143 (zero-based budgeting); The Quarry, 6 October 2026

Plan 3 of 6

Shrink the cost of the state

Held by Forward Guernsey: Deputies Humphreys, Rylatt and St Pier

Cut baseline government spending so that income tax can fall and private enterprise has room. Deputy St Pier’s manifesto article set out a £25m a year cut by 2029, an earned income allowance for under-30s and faster offshore wind.

What it would do

  • A 1% real cut a year in baseline spending for 2027 to 2029 (Humphreys and Rylatt amendment, passed 29 votes to 5 in January 2026)
  • An earned income allowance for under-30s
  • Reduced reliance on personal income tax; a first-time-buyer savings account

Its own numbers

£25m a year
Baseline spending cut by 2029 (Deputy St Pier, Guernsey Press, 14 April 2025)
£20m
Cumulative saving from the 1% annual cut, on Deputy Humphreys’s estimate
£678.04m
2026 Committee Net Expenditure, the baseline the 1% cut is calculated from (note to the Humphreys and Rylatt amendment)

In more detail

How the 1% cut is meant to work

  • The Humphreys and Rylatt amendment to the Government Work Plan directs Policy & Resources to put into the Funding and Investment Plan “a structured public service efficiency programme that targets a 1% real-terms annual reduction in baseline public expenditure” for 2027, 2028 and 2029.
  • Its note takes the approved 2026 Committee Net Expenditure of £678.04m as the baseline. One per cent is £6.78m in 2027, about £6.71m in 2028 and about £6.64m in 2029, a cumulative £20.13m that the note says could “meaningfully address one-quarter of the structural deficit”. The tax letter reads the same figure as a £20m a year reduction in baseline spending by 2029. Deputy St Pier’s 2025 article put the figure at £25m a year.
  • The note says the cut is not meant to fall evenly. If Health, Education, Blue Light Services and Income Support are “somewhat protected”, it works out at a “potentially more challenging ~3.5%” reduction across other budgets before inflation adjustments.
  • It suggests a rolling programme of service reviews that prioritises non-essential consultancy and external advisory costs, and removing duplicated or low-priority activity. It builds on the 2026 Budget, which delivered £2.5m of general revenue savings, part of a £4m total.

The 2027 Budget is the first test

  • For the first time the Budget report gives the States two spending options. Option A, with committee net expenditure of £700.4m, reflects the 1% real-terms resolution and leaves a £4.2m surplus before investment returns. Option B adds £15.7m, to £716.1m, which is a 1.3% real-terms rise, and leaves an £11.5m deficit before investments. The funding gap is £47m under A and £63m under B. The report records that committees asked for £33m more than the Option A limit.
  • By 28 October deputies had lodged 30 amendments. Bailiwick Express counts £19.56m of extra spending and £2.93m of tax and duty income given up. If all of them passed, Option A’s £4.2m surplus would become an £18.3m deficit. The requests include £6.1m for Health & Social Care, nearly £4m across three Home Affairs amendments, £3.8m for Employment & Social Security and £1.6m for Education.
  • Deputy Humphreys, Guernsey Press, 19 October: “The amendment was never intended to mean a blunt 1% reduction from every committee budget regardless of circumstance.” She welcomed the spend-to-save money in Option B, and Forward Guernsey said it would look at amendments to reconcile the savings target with protecting essential services.
  • A separate rule limiting growth in total States spending to inflation for 2027 to 2029 (Proposition 14) lost 15 votes to 22 on 2 October.

The other Forward Guernsey ideas

  • The States did not adopt the earned income allowance in the form Deputy St Pier described. Proposition 8, carried 34 votes to 4 on 2 October, directs Policy & Resources to bring options for an “Additional Earnings Allowance” for younger earners to the 2028 Budget. The note to the amendment behind it says the States “would not be committing to the introduction of such an allowance” until the implications are understood. No age, amount or cost is set.
  • Proposition 9, carried 36 to 3, directs Policy & Resources and the Committee for Housing to bring options for a tax-free Guernsey Property Savings Account for first-time buyers to the 2028 Budget. It also sets no cost.
  • Faster offshore wind appears in the tax letter in two places: a section on income from renewable energy, and “the viability of offshore wind income” on the list of things the 2030 review will assess.

What happens next

3 November 2026
2027 Budget debate: Option A or B, and the amendments to either.
2027 to 2029
The 1% real-terms efficiency target applies in each Budget.
2028 Budget
Options for the Additional Earnings Allowance and the Guernsey Property Savings Account come back to the States.
2030
The assurance review tests whether the assumed savings were delivered and offshore wind income is viable.

What it has to answer

This is a fiscal plan with a growth argument attached, and the sources quantify the savings, not the growth. It also meets resistance inside the States: amendments to the 2027 Budget seeking £19.56m more were reported on 28 October, and Deputy Humphreys, as the Guernsey Press reports her, says Option A reaches the savings target by the wrong route while Option B does not deliver the savings.

Where it stands. The 2027 Budget debate on 3 November tests it.

Sources: Deputy Gavin St Pier, Guernsey Press, 14 April 2025; Guernsey Press, 16 January 2026; Guernsey Press, 19 October 2026; Guernsey Press, 16 October 2026; Amendment 7 to P.2025/143 (1% efficiency programme); Budget 2027 report (Policy & Resources Committee, 6 October 2026); Bailiwick Express, 28 October 2026; States voting record, Proposition 8 (Additional Earnings Allowance); Amendment 55 to P.2026/49 (explanatory note)

Plan 4 of 6

Rebuild finance, then widen the base

Held by Economic Development Committee (President Deputy Kazantseva-Miller), the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, Guernsey Finance and GIBA

Return finance and related professional services to the roughly 3% real growth they managed in 2011 to 2017, and add digital, tourism and trade as the economy’s second and third legs.

What it would do

  • Six initiatives with 15 named sub-initiatives (Bridgehead’s count), overseen by a Financial Growth Forum
  • Eight Economic Development priorities: air and sea links, tourism, trade, finance, digital and AI, regulation, registries and a new Economic Development Strategy
  • A more flexible approach to population and permit policy, which the strategy names as a constraint

Its own numbers

3% a year
Real GVA growth sought for five years from finance and related services (Finance Sector Strategy)
0.1% a year
What that sector actually delivered from 2017 to 2025 (Finance Sector Strategy)
£25m
Extra government income in 2030, “subject to a number of significant conditions” (Finance Sector Strategy)
£150m a year
GVA available from digital adoption, up to, on PwC’s estimate (Economic Development work plan)
£6,000
Average rise in real income in the finance sector in 2030, if the 3% growth arrives (Finance Sector Strategy)
£15m
Economic growth fund proposed in the Budget 2027 report for 2027 to 2029, £5m a year, reinvesting up to 10% of Pillar 2 revenues

In more detail

The six initiatives

  • Boost productivity in existing finance: digital tooling and AI adoption, harmonised legal frameworks for high-growth sectors, and modernised regulation and legislation. The strategy says many firms still rely on “manual or semi-manual processes”, for example in client onboarding.
  • Capture a larger share of existing markets: a “private wealth super hub” aimed at family offices, a push to attract fund managers and encourage first-time fund managers, a hub for defence and infrastructure financing, and specialist insurance.
  • Adjacent, fast-growing areas: tokenised securities and assets, with a Sandbox and possibly competitions to encourage tokenisation and stablecoin pilots “for a small set of use cases”, and wider access to alternative investments for high-net-worth individuals and pension funds.
  • Mobilise private investment for innovation: a concierge service for start-up founders and an examination of how existing capital pools are deployed. No amount is attached to either.
  • Brand: position Guernsey as a specialist international finance centre, with targeted roadshows in priority jurisdictions.
  • Structural constraints: a campaign to build a local “growth mindset” about finance, a route development framework for flights, and talent attraction, where “supporting measures, such as housing development, will also be explored”.
  • That is 15 named sub-initiatives under six headings. The strategy sorts them into short term (6 months), medium term (1 to 2 years) and long term (3 or more years). It does not give a count of workstreams or a set of performance indicators.
  • Each institution keeps its own delivery accountability. The Financial Growth Forum is the “principal forum” for progress and meets every two months in the first year of delivery.

Where the sector starts

  • Finance contributed 37% of GVA in 2023 and employed 7,641 people in 2024. Guernsey-regulated investment licensees manage or administer over £1 trillion in assets, and the island had 196 captives at the end of 2025 and 549 insurance entities, of which 327 are non-cellular insurers and 222 are cells.
  • The strategy’s diagnosis: “Regulatory convergence has reduced differentiation, competition has intensified, and growth has become harder to secure.” It describes the fund sector as “heavily concentrated in private equity and venture capital”.
  • The benefits are conditional. The £25m of extra government income in 2030 and the £6,000 average rise in real income for finance employees are “subject to a number of significant conditions such as the effective implementation of the strategy”, effective responses to opportunities and constraints, and external economic factors.
  • The strategy is “separate and distinct from the Government’s tax review”, which it says was out of scope.

What the strategy asks of government

  • It asks for “a more flexible approach to population and permit policy for the economy” alongside better finance sector skills.
  • On law and regulation it says “the pace of legislative change is not always fast enough to meet the evolving demands of the market”. It names the document-heavy process of opening a bank account and the requirement to use a corporate service provider to register a company as costs for new businesses.
  • On people, it notes a resident population of 64,781 in 2023 that is already heavily used across finance and related services, and says “greater effort is required on attraction and retention”.

The Economic Development work plan

  • The plan splits the Committee’s time 80:20, with 80% of time and resources for eight priority areas and 20% for emerging issues. It says the Committee “does not control many of the levers affecting the Island’s economy”.
  • Dated deliverables: a review of the Air Policy Framework and air transport licensing statement and a Digital and AI Framework (both 2026), an Innovation Plan and a new Economic Development Strategy (both 2027), electricity regulation workstreams (first half of 2027), and the Guernsey Registry (2027 to 2028).
  • Emerging themes “that may develop into prioritised workstreams” include sea fisheries and the blue economy, the creative and film sectors, and support for small and medium enterprises and the real economy.
  • The Chamber of Commerce says the plan “is built around activity rather than outcomes” and calls the absence of the workforce participation report’s actions “a significant omission”. It asks for retail and creative industries to be named priority sectors in the new strategy.
  • The Budget 2027 report proposes a growth fund of £5m a year for 2027, 2028 and 2029, funded by reinvesting up to 10% of Pillar 2 revenues. Policy & Resources and Economic Development would jointly shortlist proposals. The fund is time-limited, and the report names the Finance Sector Strategy 2035, early years and childcare, air connectivity and cyber security as investment areas.

What happens next

3 November 2026
2027 Budget debate, which covers the first £5m of the proposed growth fund.
2026
Updated Air Policy Framework and Air Transport Licensing Policy, and the Digital and AI Framework.
First half of 2027
Electricity regulation workstreams.
2027
New Economic Development Strategy, which is meant to supply success measures, plus the Innovation Plan.
2027 to 2028
Guernsey Registry model.

What it has to answer

The Economic Development work plan calls itself “not an economic strategy in itself”, and its own strategy is not due until 2027. The Chamber of Commerce replied on 26 May 2026 that the plan is finance-weighted and leaves out retail and the creative industries. Finance was 37% of GVA in 2023, so 3% a year from finance alone is worth about 1.1 points of GVA growth (Bridgehead arithmetic, with the rest of the economy standing still). That is above the 0.5% the Tax Reform funding model assumes, and the two documents measure different things (GVA and GDP).

Where it stands. Strategy published 25 February 2026 and the forum is in place. The Economic Development Strategy, which is meant to supply “clear success measures”, is due in 2027.

Sources: Finance Sector Growth Strategy 2035 (February 2026); Economic Development Committee Work Plan 2026 to 2029; Chamber of Commerce response to the work plan, 26 May 2026; Budget 2027 report (Policy & Resources Committee, 6 October 2026)

Plan 5 of 6

More people at work

Held by PwC (commissioned research); the Committee for Employment & Social Security; the States’ population policy; business groups on permits

The binding constraint on growth is labour. Two routes compete: raise participation among residents, or admit more workers. PwC argues for the first; the States’ standing policy plans for the second.

What it would do

  • Participation: a Lifelong Employment Commissioner, more affordable childcare and flexible work (PwC)
  • Migration: a planning assumption of net migration averaging up to +300 a year over thirty years (P.2022/81, agreed 22 votes to 9, with a review due by 31 December 2027)
  • Permits: business owners report waits of up to 17 months for long-term employment permits (Guernsey Press, 8 August 2026; Island FM, 10 August 2026)

Its own numbers

4,500
More employees if Guernsey matched New Zealand’s employment rates today: GVA up £410m and tax up about £89m a year (PwC, July 2025).
5,000
People aged 16 to 64 not active in the workforce in June 2024, the largest group being women aged 60 to 64 (States participation findings report, February 2025)

In more detail

What the 2022 population policy says

  • The policy calls its objective “neither a target nor a cap” (paragraph 1.6). It is a planning assumption, and not the mechanism that raises the workforce.
  • On the central scenario, net migration of +100 a year (the 12-year average) and a fertility rate of 1.5, the population falls 5% by 2050, from about 63,000 to about 60,000, and the workforce shrinks faster than the population as it ages.
  • Around +300 a year for thirty years is the level the modelling found “would be required to maintain a stable workforce”. The policy adds that it would lift the population by around 5,000, to close to 68,000 by 2050 (up 8%), which “may offset the benefits to the economy” through pressure on the environment, housing and infrastructure.
  • The policy’s own estimate is that +300 “may only reduce the net revenue requirement by between £14m and £23m per year by 2040”, and that maintaining the size of the workforce “on its own, will not suffice in responding to the Island’s financial needs”. It also warns that high net inward migration has “a tendency to become self-limiting” because of the pressure on housing prices.
  • The provisional housing projection says +100 a year needs 1,327 more homes by 2026 and 1,761 by 2040. At +300 the figures are 1,705 and 3,370.
  • The overall dependency ratio reaches 0.77 by 2040 at +100 and 0.72 at +300, against 0.58 in 2021. Allowing for the pension age rising to 70 by 2049, the 2040 figures are 0.63 and 0.60.

The participation case

  • PwC’s table of employment rates puts Guernsey at 40% for 15 to 24 year olds, 82% for 25 to 54, 72% for 55 to 64 and 9% for over-65s. New Zealand’s rates are 59%, 85%, 78% and 23%.
  • If Guernsey matched New Zealand’s rates today, PwC says the workforce “could be boosted by an additional 4,500 employees” and GVA by £410m a year, with tax up around £89m a year.
  • PwC’s 2040 scenarios put the workforce at 28,000 with net migration of +150 a year and 30,000 at +300, against 31,000 in 2023. The share of over-15s in work falls from 58% to 53% or 54%, and the old-age dependency ratio rises from 32% to 48% or 45%. The projections hold employment rates, productivity and hours worked per age band constant.
  • Its priorities for policymakers are to establish a Lifelong Employment Commissioner, make participation pay and childcare affordable, and expand adult upskilling. It says Jersey and Guernsey “have some of the highest childcare costs in the OECD”.

The 5,000 people not active

  • The States’ findings report counted approximately 5,000 people aged 16 to 64 not active in the workforce in June 2024. It estimates that 787 receive a benefit that suggests illness, disability or bereavement, 303 receive family allowance or a parental benefit, 51 receive carer’s allowance and 42 receive unemployment benefit.
  • Around 146 meet more than one of those criteria, and around 3,600 meet none. Of those, 855 live in a household that receives income support and 2,773 receive no benefit from the States.
  • The report says that “by far the largest cohort” is women aged 60 to 64 who neither claim income support nor have benefit claims that might indicate a medical reason for not working. Non-participation rises significantly with age, particularly beyond 50, and more steeply for women than for men.
  • The Chamber of Commerce told Economic Development that its work plan makes no substantive reference to the actions arising from this report, which it called “a significant omission”.

Permits and the backlog

  • Long-term employment permits are for roles on an approved list. A short-term permit can be issued for up to 12 months at a time and renewed until a person reaches an aggregate of three years of residence in Guernsey.
  • The Committee for Home Affairs agreed on 16 July 2026 that Bangladeshi nationals applying from Bangladesh can no longer apply for short-term or seasonal permits. The Committee gave difficulty verifying employment references as the reason. Afghan nationals are ineligible while the UK’s “visa brake” on them applies, unless already lawfully present in the Common Travel Area. Version 3 of the Employment Permit Policy, which records both changes, was published on 5 August 2026.
  • Island FM reported on 10 August that a hospitality couple, Mike and Delphine Pesrin, had faced delays of up to 17 months for long-term employment permits and called the system “damaging businesses”.
  • On 1 October Home Affairs said 3,886 applications for population management permits or certificates needed action at 17 September. Its president, Deputy Marc Leadbeater: “The backlog of applications makes for very sobering reading.” Work on the population policy review would formally begin “in the coming weeks”.

What happens next

Autumn 2026
Home Affairs begins formal work on the population policy review, with business engagement.
31 December 2027
Home Affairs must review the strategic population objective (P.2022/81, proposition 2).

What it has to answer

The States’ policy letter says +300 a year is needed to hold the workforce at its 2020 level, yet the Home Affairs Committee tightened some permit routes in July 2026, and the Finance Sector Strategy asks for the opposite. The States cannot currently measure the result: the last population figure is for December 2023 and was later said to be overstated (see Known Unknowns).

Where it stands. Population policy review in progress; the Home Affairs Committee must report by the end of 2027. No new growth-linked population target has been proposed.

Sources: PwC, Boosting the Channel Islands workforce (Channel Eye summary); Population policy, P.2022/81; Guernsey Press, 8 August 2026; Finance Sector Growth Strategy 2035 (February 2026); PwC, Boosting the Channel Islands workforce (July 2025); States of Guernsey, Participation in Work findings report; Chamber of Commerce response to the work plan, 26 May 2026; Employment Permit Policy, version 3 (5 August 2026); Home Affairs population management update, 1 October 2026; Island FM, 10 August 2026

Where they collide

Four places the plans cannot all be followed

Each of these is a conflict between documents or positions already on the public record.

Is growth the answer to the deficit, or a risk to it?

The Policy & Resources Committee says relying on growth to close the gap is “high risk” and models 0.5% a year. Deputy Collins says growth is “always” the answer. The Economic Development Committee says Guernsey “must act decisively” to grow its economy, and also that it does not control many of the levers. These positions cannot all be the working assumption.

Sources: Tax Reform 2026 policy letter (P.2026/49); Economic Development Committee Work Plan 2026 to 2029

Cut spending or invest in capacity

Forward Guernsey’s amendment cuts baseline spending by 1% in real terms every year to 2029. The Fiscal Policy Panel asks for infrastructure spending of 3% of GDP, and Deputy Niles says investment has averaged 1.2%. Whether the savings fall on capital or running budgets decides whether the two conflict, and the published sources do not say.

Sources: Guernsey Press, 16 January 2026; Deputy Andrew Niles, Guernsey Press, 17 June 2026

Open the labour market or tighten it

The Finance Sector Strategy asks for “a more flexible approach to population and permit policy”. The 2022 population policy plans for +300 a year to hold the workforce steady. In July 2026 the Home Affairs Committee closed some permit routes, and restaurant owners report waits of up to 17 months. PwC’s alternative, raising participation, starts from about 5,000 people aged 16 to 64 who are not active, and the States’ own findings report says it has limited levers to reach them.

Sources: Finance Sector Growth Strategy 2035 (February 2026)

No plan sets a whole-economy growth target

The Government Work Plan, the Economic Development work plan and the Tax Reform letter set no target for growth in the economy as a whole. The only quantified ambition is the finance sector’s 3%. The Government Work Plan lists an updated Economic Development Strategy, and the Economic Development Committee dates it to 2027. As at 30 October, gov.gg’s Government Work Plan page lists five committee work plans and none from Policy & Resources.

Sources: Government Work Plan 2026 to 2029 (P.2025/143); Economic Development Committee Work Plan 2026 to 2029

What the nearest islands tried

What Jersey and the Isle of Man have tried

Neither is a clean test. Both are short runs in small, lumpy economies. They are the nearest evidence there is.

Jersey

Strategy for Sustainable Economic Development (2023), Time to Win (March 2026) and a proposed Common Strategic Policy 2026 to 2030

  • Aims at productivity-led growth “decoupled from population growth”, with the 0/10 tax regime kept and a competitiveness plan to cut cost and red tape outside finance.
  • Statistics Jersey’s October 2026 release puts real GDP down 1.7% in 2025, up an average 1.6% a year over the last decade, and up 0.2% excluding finance. Labour productivity fell 2.5%.
  • Without net migration (+670 in 2024), Jersey’s working-age population would have fallen every year since 2012, by 240 a year on average.

Jersey’s 2.3% a year, used on the Economy tab, covers 2013 to 2023 and includes a strong 2023 that the 2024 and 2025 figures have partly reversed. Statistics Jersey’s own decade figure is 1.6%. The window matters more than the headline.

Sources: Statistics Jersey, Jersey’s Economy 2025: GVA and GDP; Proposed Common Strategic Policy 2026 to 2030

Isle of Man

Our Island, Our Future: Economic Strategy 2022 to 2032

  • Targets 5,000 new jobs and GDP of £10bn by 2032, and plans infrastructure for a population of 100,000 by 2037.
  • The Island Plan’s May 2026 final report records a net population rise of 906 since the 2021 census, against a target of 2,500, and 1,205 more jobs against a target of 1,800.
  • Real GDP fell 2.5% in 2023/24 and 5.0% in 2022/23 (Statistics Isle of Man), although real GNP rose 7.8%.

The strategy is four years old, and GDP in a small economy is lumpy. It is the closest test of growing population to grow output, and so far it has not delivered the population. The draft ambition of 100,000 residents was softened to “plan for” that number after consultation.

Sources: Isle of Man Economic Strategy 2022 to 2032; Island Plan final programme report, May 2026; Statistics Isle of Man, National Income 2023/24

Luxembourg (digital)

PwC’s sector benchmark for the States of Guernsey

  • PwC puts Guernsey’s digital sector at about £120m and says it could reach about £270m at Luxembourg’s productivity per employee.

PwC itself attributes part of the gap to Luxembourg’s digital head offices and intellectual property functions. It is a sector benchmark, not a national strategy.

Sources: PwC Channel Islands, Embracing a bold new digital vision for Guernsey’s economy

What this page could not establish

Gaps in the record

Listed so that an absence here is not read as a finding.

  • The IoD’s Economic Growth Action Plan is not public. It is due at the IoD conference on 18 November 2026. Its survey results (250 or more participants, about 6 in 10 concerned about growth) were published on 3 July 2026, and its recommendations were not. This page does not guess at them.
  • On this page’s sources Guernsey has published no GDP estimate for 2024 or 2025, so none of these plans can be tested against current output. See Known Unknowns.
  • The Air Policy Framework and the Digital and AI Framework were not available to read. Their entries rely on the Economic Development work plan’s description.
  • No costed growth manifesto was found from the Construction Forum, the Guernsey Housing Association or the Retail Group.

The growth gap itself is charted on the Economy page, and the statistics the States has stopped publishing are on Known Unknowns.

Principal sources: Tax Reform 2026 policy letter (P.2026/49); Government Work Plan 2026 to 2029 (P.2025/143); Economic Development Committee Work Plan 2026 to 2029; Finance Sector Growth Strategy 2035 (February 2026). Each plan and comparison links its own documents. This is Bridgehead’s compilation of stated positions. If a plan is misdescribed or a newer document supersedes one cited here, tell us and it will be corrected and logged.

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What Guernsey said

Four years of public comment on local politics, in eleven events

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