Where Guernsey actually stands.

Projected population fall, 2034→2065

-0

Total population is projected to peak at ~64,000 in 2034, then fall to ~59,000 by 2065 — and the working-age share (school-leaving to state pension age) is projected to shrink every year even before that, well ahead of the headline total turning down.

States of Guernsey Data & Analysis, Long-term population projection, 2024 · gov.gg

Elective surgery on-target

0%

Down from 84% in 2018. The specialist-referral waiting list is running at 61% against the States’ own 95% target — HSC cites a shortage of junior doctors and staff accommodation (linked to the housing crisis below) as root causes.

Health & Social Care performance data, reported by Bailiwick Express / Island FM, 2025

Affordable homes added, 2022–24

0

Just one affordable home was added to the island’s housing stock across those three years. The States’ own Housing Plan calls the shortage “one of the most pressing domestic challenges facing Guernsey.”

States of Guernsey Housing Plan; Guernsey Press, 29 Apr 2025

Long-term structural funding gap

£0m

Down from £58m the year before, but still a real, ongoing shortfall between States income and expenditure — separate from (and not solved by) 2025’s one-off accounting surplus.

States of Guernsey 2025 Accounts commentary, reported by Island FM / Guernsey Press, 2026

Real growth per year, 2013–2023, vs. Jersey

-0.0pts/yr

Guernsey grew 0.6% a year in real terms, against Jersey's 2.3% and the OECD average of 2%. Had Guernsey matched Jersey's pace since 2013, 2023's real GDP would have been ~£643m higher — equivalent to ~£103m of spending power at the States' own spend-to-GDP ratio, or about 2.8× the cost of rebuilding Les Beaucamps High School.

States of Guernsey GVA/GDP Bulletin 2023; Statistics Jersey; World Bank (OECD members) — illustrative counterfactual, not a forecast

Missed growth per islander, 2013–2023

£0/yr

Had Guernsey matched Jersey's growth pace since 2013, 2023's real GDP would have been ~£643m higher. Spread across the island's population of 64,781, that's roughly £9,926 of extra economic output per person, per year, that never materialised. Illustrative counterfactual: GDP is not personal income, so this isn't money anyone was owed - it's a measure of the scale of the shortfall.

States of Guernsey GVA/GDP Bulletin 2023; Statistics Jersey; States of Guernsey Quarterly Population Bulletin, Oct 2024 — illustrative counterfactual, not a forecast

States' 2025 operating surplus

£0m

Against a budgeted £20m deficit — income exceeded expectations and investment gains added a further £68m on top. Caveat: substantially driven by one-off items, including a large prior-year bank tax repayment, so not a repeatable run-rate.

States of Guernsey 2025 Accounts; Island FM / Guernsey Press, 2026

Unemployment

0.0%

241 people wholly unemployed, down 0.2 points on the year before — among the lowest rates of any jurisdiction Guernsey compares itself to.

States of Guernsey Quarterly Population, Employment and Earnings Bulletin, Sep 2024

Financial services, share of GDP

0%

£1,304m of 2023’s £3,488m total GDP — a deep, resilient specialism that still anchors the economy despite the growth slowdown shown on the Economy tab.

States of Guernsey GVA/GDP Bulletin 2023 · gov.gg/gdp

Standard corporate tax rate

0%

0% for most companies, 10% for specific regulated sectors — matching Jersey and the Isle of Man, and still the core reason financial services chooses to base itself here.

Guernsey's Zero-10 corporate tax regime, States of Guernsey