What is working, and what is not.

Real growth per year, 2013–2023, vs. Jersey

-0.0pts/yr

Guernsey grew 0.6% a year in real terms, against Jersey's 2.3% and the OECD average of 2.0%. Had Guernsey matched Jersey's pace since 2013, 2023's real GDP would have been ~£643m higher — equivalent to ~£103m of spending power at the States' own spend-to-GDP ratio, or about 2.8× the cost of rebuilding Les Beaucamps High School.

States of Guernsey GVA/GDP Bulletin 2023; Statistics Jersey; World Bank (OECD members) — illustrative counterfactual, not a forecast

Real median household income, 2017 to 2022

-0%

Median gross household income was £55,116 in 2022, up 5.3% in cash but down 10.0% after inflation since 2017. Housing took 30.5% of net income, up from 24.3%. Only two comparable points exist, and the next edition has no announced date.

States of Guernsey Household Income Estimates Report 2022 · gov.gg/household

Projected population fall, 2034→2065

-0

Total population is projected to peak at ~64,000 in 2034, then fall to ~59,000 by 2065 — and the working-age share (school-leaving to state pension age) is projected to shrink every year even before that, well ahead of the headline total turning down.

States of Guernsey Data & Analysis, Long-term population projection, 2024 · gov.gg

Unemployment

0.0%

241 people wholly unemployed, down 0.2 points on the year before — among the lowest rates of any jurisdiction Guernsey compares itself to.

States of Guernsey Quarterly Population, Employment and Earnings Bulletin, Sep 2024

Financial services, share of GDP

0%

£1,304m of 2023’s £3,488m total GDP — a deep, resilient specialism that still anchors the economy despite the growth slowdown shown on the Economy tab.

States of Guernsey GVA/GDP Bulletin 2023 · gov.gg/gdp

Relative poverty, 2022

0.0%

Share of islanders below 60% of median income after housing costs. It fell to 16.5% in 2019 and has risen every year since. The annual report that produces this figure is suspended with no announced date.

States of Guernsey Indicators of Poverty Report · gov.gg/indicators

Without secure housing, 2023

0.0%

Up from 1.2% in 2016. The affordable-housing waiting list reached 384 households in 2024, from 264 in 2019, and no net additional affordable units were created in 2025.

States of Guernsey Indicators of Poverty Report; Annual Residential Property Stock Bulletin 2025

Lonely often or all the time, 2023

0.0%

Down from 18.6% in 2018, a statistically significant fall. The caveat matters: intense social loneliness among over-75s rose from 16.9% to 27.5% over the same two waves.

States of Guernsey Wellbeing Survey 2023, De Jong Gierveld scale · gov.gg/wellbeingsurveys

Core-government pay bill, 2015 to 2025

+0.0%

Against RPI of +42.9% over the same decade. Had the pay bill only tracked inflation it would be £43.1m lower in 2025, and £152m lower across the decade. The gap is headcount: 822 more full-time posts (+18.6%) while the island's whole workforce grew 7.1%.

States of Guernsey Accounts, Pay Costs & FTE appendix, 2016 to 2025; States RPI series

Public-sector sick days, 2025

0

Up from about 60,000 in 2023, or 11.4 days per employee against 10.8. The UK private-sector average is 4. Estimated cost £16.75m. The States publish no series of their own; these figures reached the public through a written question.

Policy & Resources Committee, Rule 14 answers to Deputy Andy Cameron, reported by Guernsey Press, 24 April 2026

Long-term structural funding gap

£0m

Down from £58m the year before, but still a real, ongoing shortfall between States income and expenditure — separate from (and not solved by) 2025’s one-off accounting surplus.

States of Guernsey 2025 Accounts commentary, reported by Island FM / Guernsey Press, 2026

Pay per public-sector post, 2015 to 2024

+0.0%

Below both RPI (+38.2%) and the island's median earnings (+39.4%) over the same period. Pay awards have been restrained in real terms. The growth in the pay bill is almost entirely extra posts, not extra pay.

States of Guernsey Accounts, Pay Costs & FTE appendix; Quarterly Population, Employment and Earnings Bulletin

States' 2025 operating surplus

£0m

Against a budgeted £20m deficit — income exceeded expectations and investment gains added a further £68m on top. Caveat: substantially driven by one-off items, including a large prior-year bank tax repayment, so not a repeatable run-rate.

States of Guernsey 2025 Accounts; Island FM / Guernsey Press, 2026

Recorded offences, 2025

0

Up 13.4% on 2021 (1,954), the first year on the current counting basis. Guernsey publishes raw counts only. No crime rate per head of population exists in any official document, so the island cannot be compared with Jersey's 29.2 per 1,000.

Bailiwick Law Enforcement Annual Reports; States of Guernsey Facts and Figures Booklet 2025

Drug deaths naming an opioid painkiller, 2001 to 2022

0%

Of 73 substance mentions on death certificates where drugs contributed, 34% specifically named an opioid analgesic, pointing at diverted prescriptions rather than imports. In 2023 the Community Drug & Alcohol Team took 240 referrals and 99 people entered treatment. None of this is published as a report.

Committee for Home Affairs, Rule 14 reply 2025-12 to Deputy Leadbeater, quoting Guernsey Public Health

Chief Officer working days in the Bailiwick, 2025

0%

190 days on island, 18 in the UK for meetings and training and 13 working remotely from outside the Bailiwick, at a total UK travel cost to the States of £2,079. To 6 February 2026 the Chief Officer had spent no time working outside the Bailiwick.

Committee for Home Affairs, Rule 14 written answer, 2026

Elective surgery on-target

0%

Down from 84% in 2018. The specialist-referral waiting list is running at 61% against the States’ own 95% target — HSC cites a shortage of junior doctors and staff accommodation (linked to the housing crisis below) as root causes.

Health & Social Care performance data, reported by Bailiwick Express / Island FM, 2025

Delayed transfer of care, days per month, 2024

0

Against a target under 100. Beds occupied by patients who are medically fit to leave but have nowhere to go, the clearest sign that the hospital's problem is the care system around it. Every waiting-time target in the 2025 contract report was missed.

Secondary Healthcare Contract KPI reports, 2018 to 2025 · gov.gg/secondaryhealthcare

Avoidable deaths per 100,000, 2022–24

0

Down from 186 in 2019–21. The report cautions that the confidence intervals are too wide to call the fall in the rate certain. The fall in years of life lost, from 358 to 257 per 10,000, is statistically supported. Cost is also deterring fewer people: 58.4% said cost had not stopped them using a health service, up from 52.7% in 2018.

Guernsey Mortality Trends, revised April 2026; Wellbeing Survey 2023

Emergency Department seen within target, 2025

0%

Short of HSC's own 95% target, and down from 91.2% in 2018, but far ahead of NHS England (71% in December 2024, last at 95% in July 2015) and of Jersey, whose best published month since January 2024 was 80.3% (Apr 25).

Secondary Healthcare Contract KPI reports; NHS England; Government of Jersey

Attainment 8, States-maintained schools, 2026

0.0

Average grade across eight GCSE subjects. The Bailiwick-wide figure, 44.9, includes the colleges and has fallen from 47.3 in 2023. England scored 46 in 2025. Guernsey's household income sits with England's wealthiest local authorities; its results do not.

States of Guernsey GCSE results releases, 2019 to 2026; Department for Education

Schools rated good or better for quality of education

0 of 20

Every school's most recent published Ofsted judgement, 2022 to 2026. Two schools judged inadequate in 2022 were good on every measure two years later. The three still requiring improvement are La Mare de Carteret High, Les Varendes High and St Anne's, Alderney.

Ofsted inspection reports for the States of Guernsey, published on gov.gg

Road closures, 2025

0

From 477 in 2021, the first full year in the Trafficworx log. Administering closures cost the States £270k in 2025 and £1.16m across 2021 to 2025. St Peter Port alone accounts for 2,171 of the closures logged since 2021.

States of Guernsey, Trafficworx activity log and FOI cost summary

Bus journeys, March 2025

0

Above March 2019's 136,543. The first quarter of 2025 was the highest on record at 382,262 journeys, and passenger numbers are up 34% over twelve years. The island still has no modal-share figure to say whether car use fell to match.

Committee for the Environment & Infrastructure, bus patronage releases, 2025

Electricity standing charge since July 2023

+0%

From £30 a quarter to £89.35 from Jul 2026, payable regardless of use, so it falls hardest on the smallest and lowest-income households. 5 consecutive above-inflation revenue-cap rises since 2022; the July 2025 rise was 8% against RPI of 4.2%.

Guernsey Electricity tariff schedules; States Trading Supervisory Board approvals, 2022 to 2026

Domestic electricity unit rate, July 2026

0.00p/kWh

Just under the Great Britain price cap of 26.35p (Ofgem cap, Oct–Dec 2025), though above Jersey's 22.2p. Winter peak demand has stayed flat, 85.9MW in winter 2025 against 95MW in 2022, while the network investment behind these bills assumes a peak of 157MW by 2050.

Guernsey Electricity; Jersey Electricity; Ofgem; Guernsey Electricity network investment case

FOI requests answered within 20 working days, 2025

0.0%

Of 152 requests submitted in 2025, with a median of 25 working days against the Code of Practice's 20. Across all 718 requests since 2014, 55% met the deadline. The States publish no compliance statistics of their own; every figure here is read from their response letters.

Bridgehead analysis of every States of Guernsey FOI response letter, 2014 to 2026

FOI requests answered within 20 working days, 2026 so far

0.0%

Of 66 requests submitted to 20 August 2026, a median of 19 working days, and 62.1% granted in full. A partial year, and the improvement needs to hold through the slower requests still open, but it is the best year on record.

Bridgehead analysis of every States of Guernsey FOI response letter, 2014 to 2026