State of the NationGuernsey · Opinion
Guernsey’s public mood: negative for four years, angriest in October
Roughly three in four comments about politics were negative, a fresh start bought about three months of goodwill, and the tax vote of 2 October drew the highest share of Angry reactions on record.
20 Oct 2026 · Bridgehead Research
Key findings
- Of 5,430 comments about politics, 74% were negative and 9% positive. On everything else the same pages carry, 33% were negative, so politics is 2.2 times as negative.
- The negative share of political comments was 77%, 81%, 72%, 67% and 70% from 2022 to 2026. The June 2025 election is the one clear break, and the goodwill lasted about three months.
- Only two of eleven political events drew fewer than half negative comments: the June 2025 election and the December 2023 no-confidence vote.
- Delivery failures (92% negative), spending and waste (89%) and trust and mandate (80%) draw sharper comments than GST and tax (76%).
- Angry made up 22.5% of reactions to political posts in the first 17 days of October 2026, the highest month since January 2022. Facebook’s counts do not depend on the AI labelling.
- Angry made up 14.0% of reactions on posts about GST and tax, against 3.0% on other political posts and 1.1% on everything else.
- Political posts drew 10% of all comments on the three pages in 2024 and 36% in 2026.
We classified 12,018 public Facebook comments from January 2022 to October 2026 and set them beside Facebook’s own comment and reaction counts for 14,009 posts. Roughly three in four comments about politics were negative, a fresh start bought about three months of goodwill, and the tax reform vote of 2 October drew the highest share of Angry reactions on record.
The full analysis, with every event and the method, is on the public mood page.
Politics is where the anger is
Of 5,430 comments about politics on the pages we studied, 74% were negative and 9% were positive. Of 6,588 comments on everything else those pages carry, 33% were negative and 31% positive. Politics is 2.2 times as negative.
The outlet matters far less. The negative share of political comments runs from 68% on BBC Guernsey to 81% on Island FM, a 13-point spread beside a 40-point gap between politics and everything else.
Three in four comments about politics are negative, against one in three on everything else
Share of public Facebook comments by tone, January 2022 to October 2026. Tone labelled by AI.
NegativeNeutralPositive
All comments 12,018 comments
About politics 5,430 comments
Everything else 6,588 comments
Why it matters
Reading Guernsey’s Facebook comments as proof that islanders are generally sour reads the wrong signal. The same pages carry far more neutral and positive comment on other subjects. The sourness attaches to government.
Four years, and the mood barely moved
Among the three pages with full coverage, the negative share of political comments ran 77%, 81%, 72%, 67% and 70% from 2022 to 2026. Outside the three months after the June 2025 election, the three-month average stayed between 60% and 86%.
The election is the one clear break. Negative comments fell to about 45% and positive comments rose to about 33%, mostly congratulations to the new deputies. By September 2025 the negative share was back at 68% and the positive share down to 6%.
Tax decisions bought no goodwill. After the States voted for GST-plus in November 2024, the three-month negative share rose from 63% in September to 78% in December.
Negative comment held between 60% and 86%, except for three months after the 2025 election
Share of political comments labelled negative and positive, three-month average, States of Guernsey, Guernsey Press and Island FM pages. Hover for any month.
Share of political comments that were negative, by calendar year:
Of eleven political events we examined, only two drew fewer than half negative comments. Both followed a change of people at the top. The June 2025 election drew 19% negative and 64% positive across 323 comments. The December 2023 no-confidence vote that removed the Policy & Resources Committee drew 45% negative and 35% positive, with relief at early decisions and calls to give the new team a chance. Every other event ran from 52% to 76% negative.
Only two of eleven political events drew fewer than half negative comments
Tone of comments under posts about each event. The two bold rows are below 50% negative.
NegativeNeutralPositive
Nov 2022Deficit plan with 5% GST n=35
Feb 2023GST plan rejected, 25 to 15 n=61
Jun 2023£135m deficit revealed n=31
Dec 2023P&R ousted; Trott elected n=93
Oct 2024Brittany Ferries chosen n=139
Nov 2024GST-plus approved n=98
May 2025Agilisys IT contract ended n=15*
Jun to Jul 2025Election; new P&R president n=323
Oct 2025Budget 2026 n=59
Jan 2026Tax reform letter published n=46
Sep to Oct 2026Tax reform vote, 22 to 17 n=202
Why it matters
Both lifts came with new faces, and neither came with new policy. A new government has had about a quarter of goodwill, and the 2025 window shows how quickly it closes. After that the comments return to judging what the States delivers.
The complaint is about delivery and trust as much as tax
GST and tax is the biggest single topic: a quarter of all political comments, 76% of them negative, close to the political average. The sharper comments are about whether the States spends well and keeps its word.
Comments about delivery failures (IT contracts, tax returns, “shambles”) were 92% negative. Spending and waste ran at 89% and trust and mandate at 80%. The themes feed each other in the threads. The Agilisys IT contract, tax assessment delays and the ferry tender are cited as evidence that the States cannot run a new tax system.
Delivery failures, waste and broken promises draw sharper criticism than tax does
Share of comments labelled negative, by topic. All political comments averaged 74%.
“They have betrayed the Guernsey people simple as that.”Comment on the GST-plus vote, November 2024
“Great that Guernsey finally has a P&R president with mandate and support from the public.”Comment after the June 2025 election
Why it matters
On 2 October the States passed its tax package by 22 votes to 17, with GST starting at 3% and rising to 5%. If commenters are a guide, the rate will be argued about less than the machinery. The next test is whether the States can collect a new tax without the delays and failures that readers already cite.
That is an inference from what commenters say, not a forecast.
In October the anger showed up in reactions
Facebook’s own reaction counts do not depend on our AI labelling. In the first 17 days of October 2026, 22.5% of reactions to political posts on the three pages were Angry: 402 of 1,790. That is the highest month since the record begins in January 2022. The previous peak, 18.7%, came in November 2024, when the States voted for GST-plus.
Angry reactions to political posts reached 22.5% in October, the highest month on record
Angry as a share of all reactions to political posts and to all other posts, by month of posting, January 2022 to 17 October 2026.
It is not one post. Nine of the 30 political posts that drew ten or more reactions in October had at least 20% Angry reactions.
Anger attaches to tax. Angry made up 14.0% of reactions on posts about GST and tax, 3.0% on other political posts and 1.1% on everything else.
On tax posts, 14% of reactions are Angry; on everything else, 1%
Angry as a share of all reactions, January 2022 to 17 October 2026.
The two measures part company in 2026. The AI-labelled negative share of comments eased to about 62% in October while Angry reactions peaked. Reactions respond to the post and the labels read the comments, so month by month the two move together only loosely (a correlation of 0.34 with the Angry share of reactions).
Why it matters
The vote landed as a stronger emotional event than any earlier tax decision in the record, even though commenters were no more negative than usual. Commenting and reacting are different acts. An Angry reaction is quick and cheap, and it says the news provoked a feeling, not that the States is its target.
Treat October as a signal to check against the next three months, not a settled verdict.
Politics takes up more of the conversation
Posts about politics drew 20% of all comments on these three pages in 2022, 14% in 2023 and 10% in 2024. The share was 28% in 2025 and 36% in 2026.
Politics has gone from a tenth of comments to over a third
Political posts’ share of all comments on States of Guernsey, Guernsey Press and Island FM, by calendar year. 2026 runs to 17 October.
Loud is not the same as cross. July 2025, the month after the election, drew 2,037 comments under political posts, the third most of any month. Only 0.1% of the reactions to those posts were Angry.
Why it matters
Politics now takes a larger part of the public conversation on these pages than at any point in the record, and the tone of that conversation has not softened. The States is being judged in public more often than in 2024, when politics was a tenth of comments.
How to read these figures
- The comments come from public Facebook pages and one public group. Private groups are not covered, so nothing here describes what is said in them.
- An AI model labelled each comment positive, neutral or negative. We spot-checked 24 comments and 22 were right. The full set was not audited, so read the shares as direction, not precision.
- Each event uses the first 15 comments, with no replies, under the most-commented political posts for that month, so heated threads are over-represented. Facebook’s own comment counts include replies, so the two use different bases.
- Positive means a positive tone, not agreement with the States. In October 2026 most positive comments praised the 22p income tax alternative and the deputies who voted against the package.
- Reactions are to the post, not to the comments under it. Political posts are picked by keyword, so a few that are not political will be counted.
- Timing between an event and a change in tone does not show that one caused the other.
Questions
- How negative is public comment on Guernsey politics?
- Of 5,430 public Facebook comments about politics from January 2022 to October 2026, 74% were negative and 9% positive. On everything else the same pages carry, 33% were negative. The yearly negative share ran between 67% and 81%.
- How long did goodwill last after the June 2025 election?
- About three months. The three-month average negative share fell to about 45% and the positive share rose to about 33%, then the negative share was back at 68% by September 2025.
- What are Guernsey residents most negative about?
- Delivery failures such as IT contracts and tax returns (92% negative), spending and waste (89%) and trust and mandate (80%). GST and tax is the largest topic, at a quarter of political comments, and 76% of those were negative.
- What share of reactions to Guernsey political posts were Angry in October 2026?
- In the first 17 days of October 2026, 22.5% of reactions to political posts on States of Guernsey, Guernsey Press and Island FM were Angry (402 of 1,790). That is the highest month since January 2022.
- How reliable is the analysis?
- The tone labels come from an AI model and were spot-checked on 24 comments, of which 22 were right. The reaction and comment counts are Facebook’s own. Private groups are not covered.
Sources
- What Guernsey said: public comment on Guernsey politics, 2022 to 2026, Bridgehead Communications, 17 October 2026
- States of Guernsey, public Facebook page, Facebook, Collected 17 October 2026
- Guernsey Press, public Facebook page, Facebook, Collected 17 October 2026
- Island FM, public Facebook page, Facebook, Collected 17 October 2026
- GST is agreed at 3% but soon rising to 5%, Guernsey Press, 2 October 2026