Not by matching them locally, in most of England. Across 152 upper-tier councils there is almost no relationship between where young people are claiming unemployment-related benefits and where adult social care posts are unfilled. The correlation is −0.04, which is to say none. In 37 councils both run above the national median, and those are the places, and close to the only places, where a youth-to-care pathway has the people and the posts in the same area.
The numbers
- England has 96,450 unfilled adult social care posts, a vacancy rate of 6.2% in 2025/26.
- 288,470 people aged 16 to 24 were claiming unemployment-related benefits in July 2026, three for every vacant care post.
- Correlation between a council’s youth claimant rate and its care vacancy rate: −0.04.
- 37 of 152 councils are above the median on both, holding about 25,925 unfilled posts and 73,745 young claimants between them.
- The national vacancy rate has fallen from a 2021/22 peak of 10.4% to 6.2%. This is a tightening shortage, not a worsening one.
Explore the data
The 37 councils where both run high
Each council is scored on the lower of its two percentile ranks. A score of 90 means it sits in the top tenth of England on the youth claimant rate and in the top tenth on the care vacancy rate. Being high on one alone cannot lift the score. The fifteen highest:
| Council | Region | Score | 16–24 claimant rate | Care vacancy rate | Unfilled posts | Young claimants |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croydon | London | 94 | 7.1% | 10.9% | 1,300 | 2,895 |
| Halton | North West | 93 | 6.9% | 9.8% | 375 | 885 |
| Blackburn with Darwen | North West | 91 | 6.8% | 16.7% | 900 | 1,340 |
| Barking and Dagenham | London | 89 | 6.7% | 10.4% | 700 | 2,015 |
| Doncaster | Yorkshire and the Humber | 85 | 6.5% | 8.9% | 850 | 1,880 |
| Peterborough | Eastern | 83 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 850 | 1,435 |
| Wakefield | Yorkshire and the Humber | 80 | 6.2% | 7.9% | 750 | 2,025 |
| Isle of Wight | South East | 78 | 6.1% | 8.0% | 475 | 640 |
| Blackpool | North West | 77 | 8.4% | 7.6% | 400 | 1,115 |
| Luton | Eastern | 77 | 6.0% | 7.9% | 375 | 1,730 |
| Derby | East Midlands | 74 | 5.8% | 7.2% | 550 | 1,900 |
| Telford and Wrekin | West Midlands | 74 | 5.8% | 9.8% | 650 | 1,175 |
| Brent | London | 71 | 5.7% | 14.4% | 900 | 2,620 |
| Bury | North West | 71 | 5.7% | 7.9% | 425 | 1,095 |
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | Yorkshire and the Humber | 71 | 6.3% | 7.1% | 600 | 2,000 |
Where the vacancies actually are
Unfilled care posts are an urban and, above all, a London phenomenon. The ten highest council vacancy rates in England:
| Council | Region | Care vacancy rate | Unfilled posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn with Darwen | North West | 16.7% | 900 |
| Kensington and Chelsea | London | 16.7% | 600 |
| West Berkshire | South East | 14.9% | 600 |
| Brent | London | 14.4% | 900 |
| Croydon | London | 10.9% | 1,300 |
| Barking and Dagenham | London | 10.4% | 700 |
| Peterborough | Eastern | 10.3% | 850 |
| Halton | North West | 9.8% | 375 |
| Telford and Wrekin | West Midlands | 9.8% | 650 |
| Westmorland and Furness | North West | 9.5% | 650 |
Why the obvious answer is wrong
The intuitive way to find care demand is to look at where the very old population is growing fastest. We built the first version of this index that way, using ONS projections for the population aged 85 and over, and it produced a clean, confident and misleading result: demand rising fastest in rural and coastal England, young jobseekers concentrated in the cities.
Actual vacancy data does not support that proxy. Barking and Dagenham has the slowest projected growth in its 85 and over population of anywhere in England, and one of the highest care vacancy rates in the country. Vacancies track staff turnover, pay and competition from other local employers, not the age structure of the population. Any workforce plan built on demographic projection alone will point at the wrong places.
The result holds on the NEET measure
The claimant count is a proxy. The obvious objection to it is that a young person only appears if they claim, and many who are not in education, employment or training never do. If that gap were hiding a relationship, the index would be measuring the wrong thing.
It is not. We ran the same test again using the Department for Education’s own NEET measure for 16 and 17 year olds, against the same 152 councils and the same vacancy data. The correlation is −0.10, against −0.04 on the claimant count. Outside London it is −0.03. Neither is distinguishable from no relationship at all. Whichever way youth disengagement is counted, it does not tell you where the unfilled care posts are.
Why regional figures will say otherwise
There is a trap in this data that matters for how any scheme gets designed. Take the same 152 councils and average them up into the nine English regions, and the correlation between youth disengagement and care vacancies jumps to −0.78, explaining 60% of the variation. Nothing has changed except the unit of analysis.
The regional figure is an artefact. At nine data points, one unusual region sets the line, and London is that region: the lowest NEET rate in England at 1.9% and the highest regional vacancy rate at 7.3%. Split London back into its 33 councils and the pattern it appeared to establish for the whole country disappears.
This is worth stating plainly because regional statistics are what most workforce planning runs on. Anyone analysing this question at regional level will find a strong, clean and statistically significant relationship, and will be wrong.
What this means for the Youth Guarantee
The Youth Guarantee is being delivered regionally, and that is exactly the level at which this data misleads. If the relationship between young jobseekers and care vacancies were strong, regional delivery would be the right instrument and the care sector could simply be plugged into it. Regional figures suggest it is strong. Council-level figures show it is close to zero, and a scheme that can only match local young people to local vacancies will work in some places and fail in most.
Two things follow. First, the councils listed above are where a care-sector youth pathway can be built out of people who already live there, and are the obvious places to pilot one. Second, everywhere else the argument is for a national framework with portable recognition and a qualification that travels, rather than several dozen local schemes each trying to solve the problem inside its own boundary.
Methodology
Care vacancy rates and unfilled post counts are Skills for Care Adult Social Care Workforce Data, 2025/26 workforce estimates, all sectors and all services, at upper-tier local authority level. Skills for Care state that council-run provision in that release is correct as at September 2025 and that independent sector data comes from the Adult Social Care Workforce Data Set as at March 2026.
Youth claimant counts are the ONS and DWP Claimant Count for people aged 16 to 24, via Nomis, for July 2026, the latest month published. District figures are aggregated to upper-tier authority using the ONS 2023 lower-tier to upper-tier lookup and expressed as a share of the ONS mid-2025 resident population aged 16 to 24. Correlation is Pearson’s r. Groups split at the median of each measure, so they describe a council’s position relative to the rest of England rather than any absolute threshold.
NEET figures used for the cross-check are Department for Education management information, Participation in education, training and NEET age 16 to 17 by local authority, calendar year 2025, for the full 16 to 17 cohort. DfE cautions that these are local tracking data rather than survey data, and that authorities should not be strictly ranked against one another on them. Regional figures are the same council data aggregated, with NEET rates weighted by cohort size and vacancy rates by post counts.
What this does not show. The claimant count is not the same as being NEET, since it excludes young people not in education, employment or training who do not claim. Testing the NEET measure directly does not change the answer, but the two measures cover different age bands and different months. The two snapshots are about four months apart, March and July 2026. One council is absent for want of a published vacancy rate, leaving 152 of 153. And a high vacancy rate measures unfilled posts, not unmet need: an area can have low vacancies and still be short of care.
Cite this analysis
Bridgehead Communications, Care Workforce Mismatch Index, August 2026. Analysis of Skills for Care 2025/26 workforce estimates, ONS/DWP Claimant Count, July 2026, and DfE NEET management information, 2025, across 152 English upper-tier local authorities. Available at https://www.bridgeheadcommunications.com/care-workforce-mismatch-index.
